https://jtcies.com/ Recent content on jtcies Hugo -- gohugo.io en-us Wed, 22 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/ammc2020/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/ammc2020/ American Museum Membership Conference - May 2020 Webinar recordng Slides Related Shiny application Abstract In this session I introduce participants to customer lifetime value (LTV) as a metric, including what it is, how to calculate it, and how to use it. I start with a description of its benefits and limitations. We then calculate LTV using example data. I then discuss how to use this metric, particularly in acquisition efforts. https://jtcies.com/talks/ammc2019/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/ammc2019/ American Museum Membership Conference - September 2019 Abstract The Philadelphia Museum of Art has a high member retention rate relative to other cultural organizations. However, we know that first-year members are the most vulnerable to churn. In this session, we share the analytics we used to quantify this problem and identify potential solutions. Retention for first-year members is strongly related to the number of visits they make to the museum. https://jtcies.com/talks/pnec-why-code/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/pnec-why-code/ Philadelphia Non-profit Evaluators Coalition - January 2020 In this talk, I describe why I use code to do data analysis and make the case that other evalutors can and should do the same. This starts from the perspective that: Data analysis offers the power to critically examine and improve our organizations and advance their missions The way we do data analysis isn’t (always) conducive to this Using code can help https://jtcies.com/talks/ecs_2018/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/ecs_2018/ Forum for Opportunity and Justice hosted by ECS - October 2018 In this talk I discuss why looking at data frequently doesn’t lead to the change or improvement we seek. Data alone may be able to identify areas of growth but does not provide clear solutions. In order for data to influence decision-making, organizations and inititiaves need to have a strong foundation of shared understanding about goals and implementation. Frequently described as ‘theories of change’, these frameworks should be as specific as possible and publicly documented so they can act as a guide in decision-making processes. https://jtcies.com/2020/07/quantifying-uncertainty-around-the-short-mlb-season/ Wed, 22 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2020/07/quantifying-uncertainty-around-the-short-mlb-season/ This year’s going to be a weird year for baseball. Many have commented how the shortened season could lead to some weird final results, with highest ranked teams finishing lower than expected or some pretty bad teams ending with a decent record. This is because the outcome of any one game of baseball contains relatively little information about which team is actually better in the long run. The question then, is what’s the amount of uncertainty we have about how teams will finish compared to a normal season? https://jtcies.com/2020/07/how-would-the-nba-season-have-finished/ Mon, 13 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2020/07/how-would-the-nba-season-have-finished/ I recently read Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver. In this book he, presents a formula for expected winning percentage. Given that we’re in such a weird situation with the current basketball season, I wanted to see what that formula would have to say about how things are shaking out. Using the formula for expected win percentage, we can examine how we would have expected teams to finish the season. https://jtcies.com/2020/04/does-it-rain-more-on-tuesdays-with-informative-priors/ Thu, 30 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2020/04/does-it-rain-more-on-tuesdays-with-informative-priors/ A couple of years ago, I wrote about rain on different days of the week in Philadelphia. I was annoyed because it felt like every time I took out the trash, it was raining. Our trash day is Wednesdays, so I take it out on Tuesday nights. When I did that analysis, I found that, sure enough, it did rain more on Tuesdays! Maybe not that interesting - it’s gotta rain more on some day, right? https://jtcies.com/2020/03/when-does-garbage-time-start/ Mon, 02 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2020/03/when-does-garbage-time-start/ The 76ers recent Christmas Day game against the Milwaukee Bucks got me thinking about garbage time. The Sixers held a fairly substantial lead for the whole game, but let it get close at the end (they were outscored by 15 points in the fourth quarter). I started to wonder, “When does garbage time start”? According to Wikipedia: Garbage time is a term used to refer to the period toward the end of a timed sports competition that has become a blowout when the outcome of the game has already been decided, and the coaches of one or both teams will decide to replace their best players with substitutes. https://jtcies.com/2018/10/why-use-data/ Mon, 22 Oct 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2018/10/why-use-data/ This post is adapted from a talk I gave at the Forum for Justice and Opportunity organized by Episcopal Community Services in Philadelphia. Why look at data? Why do we look at data? In my mind, the response is to make decisions. Research suggests we make thousands of decisions every day, and we want information about those decisions. And in particular, we want to make different decisions. Usually we want to make things better, to grow and to improve, and we recognize that doing so will require us to make different decisions than those we had been making previously. https://jtcies.com/2018/09/is-it-more-likely-to-rain-on-tuesdays-in-philadelphia/ Wed, 26 Sep 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2018/09/is-it-more-likely-to-rain-on-tuesdays-in-philadelphia/ Trash day in our neighborhood is on Wednesday, which means we have to put our trash out on Tuesday night. My wife and I always joke that it seems to rain more on Tuesdays than any other day. This may not seem like a thing to even notice, except that in our South Philly row home, we have to lug soaking wet trash cans and recycling bins from our backyard through our kitchen and living to put them out on the sidewalk each week. https://jtcies.com/2018/09/comparing-nba-teams-from-the-past-20-years/ Tue, 18 Sep 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2018/09/comparing-nba-teams-from-the-past-20-years/ With the NBA season fast-approaching (not fast enough for me), I wanted to play around with some NBA data and explore teams from recent history. My beloved Philadelphia 76ers have made a remarkable rise in the past two years, going from one of the worst teams in history to a contender for the conference championship, so there are some bragging rights invovled in this too. What’s the best way to rate teams? https://jtcies.com/2018/08/data-science-for-decision-making-in-the-social-sector/ Wed, 08 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2018/08/data-science-for-decision-making-in-the-social-sector/ A recent report by Monitor Institute at Deloitte attempts to asses the landscape of the use of data in the social sector. They present three ‘characteristics of a better future’: More effectively put decision-making at the center Better empowering constituents and promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion More productively learning at scale In the next couple of posts, I’d like to lay out the case that the tools and techniques associated with data science present the opportunity to help make this future a reality. https://jtcies.com/2018/02/from-counting-kids-to-changing-outcomes/ Mon, 19 Feb 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2018/02/from-counting-kids-to-changing-outcomes/ The non-profit organizaiton I work at collects tons of data. But the ways in which many organizations in the sector tends to be fairly limited. I want to talk about why I think that challenge exits and how we are working to change that fact, putting our data to work improving opportunities for young people1. Challenge A lot of infrastructure has been built up in the social service sector around data collection. https://jtcies.com/2017/06/racial-segregation-and-poverty-in-philadelphia/ Wed, 07 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/2017/06/racial-segregation-and-poverty-in-philadelphia/ Philadelphia has consistently been identifed as one of the most segregated cities in the country. Once this fact is stated, the analysis usually stops. We’re left to infer how living in communities which are racially segregated impacts the lives of residents. Here I try to explore this topic. This is partially motivated by a conference I went to a few months ago. The presenters were discussing the ways in which historical, intentional segregation has influenced opportunities for subsequent generations. https://jtcies.com/about/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/about/ I enjoy using data to investigate interesting questions and help individuals and organizations to solve problems. All views presented here are my own. https://jtcies.com/projects/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/projects/ Member LTV Shiny App Application that allows managers of a membership program to estimate lifetime value of current and potential members. Users can adjust underlying metrics that impact LTV, allowing them to identify strategies which will have the greater long-term impact on their program. Application was used in webinar introducing LTV. NBA Elo Shiny App Examine an team’s Elo rating over the past twenty years. Pick any two teams on any date to see how they would match up. https://jtcies.com/talks/teacher_diversity_programs/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/teacher_diversity_programs/ Section from The State of Teacher Diversity in America (2015) Methods and Rationale A national search, using primarily online tools and program websites, was conducted to identify state and local programs that aim to recruit and retain minority teachers. Programs were included in this review if they combine recruitment and retention aspects (even if the focus on retention isn’t explicit), have an external evaluation or solid documentation of results, and are still active. https://jtcies.com/talks/aea_2018/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/aea_2018/ American Evaluation Association Conference - November 2018 Abstract Over the last several years, direct service programs have increasingly focused on building data and evaluation capacity - investing in staff and/or systems to support data entry and capture outcomes. Government and philanthropic funders have helped drive these changes by mandating specific outcomes information and offering data collection systems. While many programs have become more adept at understanding enrollment and outcomes, too often organizations are awash in data about services and activities that offer a murky picture of the implementation efforts in between. https://jtcies.com/talks/earl_2017/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/earl_2017/ EARL Boston - November 2017 Abstract Organizations in the non-profit sector often collect lots of data that only gets used for compliance and performance monitoring. How can we sue this information to deepen our understanding of program implemntation and improve outcomes for participants? This talk focuses on how our organization used the tools and principles associated with the ‘Tidyverse’ to transform our data use from an excercise in counting to a resource for supporting program improvement, ultimately leading to higher quality experiences for participants. https://jtcies.com/talks/summer_jobs_reminders/ Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000 https://jtcies.com/talks/summer_jobs_reminders/ Phiadelphia Behavior Science Initiative Conference - May 2017 Abstract In the spring of 2017, PYN partnered with researchers to explore ways to encourage young people to apply for summer jobs. Each year, thousands of young people begin applications for the program but don’t complete them. For example, in 2016 approximately 32,000 applications were started but just 16,177 were completed. We conducted an expirement to explore two research questions. First, do email reminders increase application rates?